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Kentucky Ag News

 

Forecasts lowered for Kentucky corn and soybeans

 

National Agricultural Statistics Service

 

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its crop production report from the October Agricultural Survey conducted at the beginning of the month. This month’s report shows lower forecasts for corn and soybeans than in September.

 

“Corn, soybean and tobacco yields are disappointing compared with earlier projections” said David Knopf, director of the NASS Eastern Mountain Regional Office in Kentucky. “Yields from harvested fields are falling short of what looked to be some very good crops.”

Corn production in Kentucky is forecast at 228 million bushels, down 6 percent from the September forecast and up 1 percent from the previous crop. Yield was estimated at 162 bushels per acre, down 10 bushels from last month and down 10 bushels from the 2015 level. Acres for harvest as grain were estimated at 1.41 million acres, up 100,000 acres from 2015. The U.S. corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and up 11 percent from 2015. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 173.4 bushels per acre, down 1.0 bushels from last month and up 5.0 bushels from 2015. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 86.8 million acres, up slightly from the September forecast and up 8 percent from 2015.

Soybean production for Kentucky is forecast at 89.5 million bushels, down 2 percent from the September forecast and up 1 percent from 2015. Yield was estimated at 50 bushels per acre, down 1 bushels from last month and up 1.0 bushels from a year ago. Acreage for harvest as beans was estimated at 1.79 million acres, down 20,000 acres from the previous year. U.S. soybean production is forecast at 4.27 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the September forecast and up 9 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 51.4 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushels from last month and up 3.4 bushels from last year. Area for harvest is forecast at 83.0 million acres, up slightly from the September forecast and up 2 percent from 2015.

Kentucky burley tobacco production is forecast at 110 million pounds, down 1 percent from the September forecast and up 6 percent from 2015. Yield was projected at 1,750 pounds per acre, down 100 pounds from last month and down 50 pounds from the 2015 crop. Harvested acreage was estimated at 63,000 acres, up 5,000 acres from last year's crop. For the burley producing states production is forecast at 143 million pounds, down 1 percent from last year. Burley growers plan to harvest 81,900 acres, up 4 percent from 2015. Yields were expected to average 1,747 pounds per acre, down 87 pounds from last year.

Production of Kentucky dark fire-cured tobacco is forecast at 22.8 million pounds, down 8 percent from the September forecast and down 28 percent from the previous year. Dark air-cured tobacco production is forecast at 8.64 million pounds, down 16 percent from the September forecast and down 37 percent from last year.

“I hate it for our tobacco producers,” Knopf continued. “They fought the effects of higher than normal rainfall all season and ended up with the lightest burley yield since 1983. On a brighter note, soybean production is still on track to be a record high.”

Alfalfa hay production by Kentucky farmers is forecast at 544,000 tons, down 14 percent the 2015 level. Other hay production is estimated at 5.06 million tons, unchanged from last year.