Kentucky Department of Agriculture

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Crop prospects as of August 1 appear to be mostly down for Kentucky crops in 2012. Yields are projected to be below 2011 levels, according to the Kentucky Field Office of USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Very hot and dry conditions this growing season have stressed crops. All forecasts in this release are based on conditions as of August 1 and assume normal growing conditions for the remainder of the crop season.

Corn production in Kentucky was forecast at 96.9 million bushels, down 46 percent from the previous crop. While acreage is up, expected yields are down significantly from the previous year. Yield was estimated at 65 bushels per acre, down 74 bushels from the 2011 level. If realized, this would be the lowest yield since the 1983 crop yield of 48 bushels. Acres for harvest as grain were estimated at 1.49 million acres, up 190,000 acres from 2011. Condition of the corn crop statewide was mostly very poor to poor.

The U.S. corn production was forecast at 10.8 billion bushels, down 13 percent from 2011 and the lowest production since 2006. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 123.4 bushels per acre, down 23.8 bushels from 2011. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.4 million acres, down 2 percent from the June forecast but up 4 percent from 2011.

Soybean production for Kentucky was forecast at 40.0 million bushels, a decrease of 31 percent from 2011. Both acres for harvest and expected yield are down from the previous year. Yield was estimated at 29 bushels per acre, 10 bushels below a year ago. Acreage for harvest as beans was estimated at 1.38 million acres, down 100,000 acres from the previous year. Recent rains have benefitted soybeans in some areas. As of August 1, the soybean crop was in mostly fair to poor condition.

U.S. soybean production was forecast at 2.69 billion bushels, down 12 percent from last year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 36.1 bushels per acre, down 5.4 bushels from last year. If realized, the average yield will be the lowest since 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 74.6 million acres, down 1 percent from June but up 1 percent from 2011.

Kentucky burley tobacco production was forecast at 135 million pounds, up 5 percent from 2011. The increase in production resulted from increased harvested acreage. Yield was projected at 1,900 pounds per acre, down 100 pounds from the 2011 crop. Harvested acreage was estimated at 71,000 acres, up 7,000 acres from last year’s crop. Dry conditions had stressed the burley crop, but rains over the past month have significantly improved the outlook. Condition of the crop was mostly fair to good. For the burley producing states production was forecast at 186 million pounds, up 8 percent from last year. Burley growers plan to harvest 96,800 acres, up 9 percent from 2011. Yields were expected to average 1,917 pounds per acre, down 21 pounds from last year.

Production of Kentucky dark fire-cured tobacco was forecast at 29.7 million pounds, down 4 percent from the previous year. Dark air-cured tobacco production was forecast at 10.2 million pounds, down 23 percent from last year.

Production of hay by Kentucky farmers was forecast to be down significantly from last year due to reduced yields. Alfalfa hay production was forecast at 520 thousand tons, 27 percent below the 2011 level. Other hay production was estimated at 3.52 million tons, down 24 percent from last year.