National Agricultural Statistics Service

LOUISVILLE (Oct. 11, 2018) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the October Crop Production report today, showing a potential record yield forecasts for corn.

“Based on producer reports, Kentucky corn are forecast at 180 bushels per acre, up 2 bushels from the record high set last year,” said David Knopf, director of the NASS Eastern Mountain Regional Office in Kentucky. “The soybean yield forecast remained at 57 bushels per acre this month, which would also be a record high. Unfortunately, heavy rains in September took a toll on burley tobacco, dropping the yield 300 pounds per acre.”

Corn production in Kentucky is forecast at 223 million bushels, up 4 percent from the September forecast and up 3 percent from the previous crop. Yield was estimated at 180 bushels per acre, up 3 bushels from last month and up 2 bushels from the 2017 level. Acres for harvest as grain were estimated at 1.24 million acres, up 20,000 acres from 2017. The U.S. corn production is forecast at 14.8 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and up 1 percent from 2017. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 180.7 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushels from last month and up 4.1 bushels from 2017. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.8 million acres, down slightly from the September forecast and down 1 percent from 2017.

Soybean production for Kentucky is forecast at 113 million bushels, down 5 percent from the September forecast and up 10 percent from 2017. Yield was estimated at 57 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and up 4.0 bushels from a year ago. Acreage for harvest as beans was estimated at 1.99 million acres, up 50,000 acres from the previous year. U.S. soybean production is forecast at 4.69 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and up 6 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 53.1 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month and up 3.8 bushels from last year. Area for harvest is forecast at 88.3 million acres, down 1 percent from the September forecast and down 1 percent from 2017.

Kentucky burley tobacco production is forecast at 90.1 million pounds, down 15 percent from the September forecast and down 30 percent from 2017. Yield was projected at 1,700 pounds per acre, down 300 pounds from last month and down 350 pounds from the 2017 crop. Harvested acreage was estimated at 53,000 acres, down 10,000 acres from last year's crop. For the burley producing states production is forecast at 113 million pounds, down 30 percent from last year. Burley growers plan to harvest 64,800 acres, down 20 percent from 2017. Yields were expected to average 1,743 pounds per acre, down 234 pounds from last year.

Production of Kentucky dark fire-cured tobacco is forecast at 35.2 million pounds, unchanged from the September forecast and down 7 percent from the previous year. Dark air-cured tobacco production is forecast at 19.4 million pounds, unchanged from the September forecast and up 20 percent from last year.

Alfalfa hay production by Kentucky farmers is forecast at 518,000 tons, down 1 percent the 2017 level. Other hay production is estimated at 5.25 million tons, up 9 percent from last year.

NASS gathered data for the October Agricultural Yield Survey earlier this month. “We recognize this is a hectic time for farmers, but the information they provide helps Kentucky and U.S. agriculture remain viable and capable,” Knopf said.

All reports are available on the NASS website: nass.usda.gov/Publications/Calendar/reports_by_date.php.

For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Kentucky Field Office at (800) 928-5277 or visit nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kentucky/.